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Mechatronics, Systems Engineering and Automation

Paris, France
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Recent developments in technological forecasting

Author(s): Martino JP

Abstract

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of “technology.” The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.